Race: TAB Everest
Author: Early Bird 🦅
Horse by horse preview below with our top 4 and roughie at the bottom. Looks like we are on a heavy track which is fine for most of the fancies but brings a few unstuck.
NATURE STRIP: Disclaimer: I'm not a fan of Nature Strip after he has been turned over multiple times at skinny odds in high pressure sprint races. If we were on a dry track I was fully prepared to go balls on line and sack him completely with the speed engaged, however a wet brings him right into play. Think he will cop serious pressure getting across from gate 10 and not the same horse unless he can highball out in front solo. The weather has played into the hands significantly as he is the best mudder in the race and market support is flooding in (pardon the pun). The only time in 32 months he has missed the top 4 is this race last year when folding up.... I'll keep him in my numbers to appease his fans now the rain has come but do think he is every chance to crab it late!
CLASSIQUE LEGEND: The defending champ returns off the back of a very strange 12 months. Sent to Hong Kong after the barnstorming victory here last year but only ran once over there when going poor. Sent back to Les Bridge to focus on this race but reading between lines has been far from smooth sailing. I'm a huge fan and we had him tipped last year however this will be a monumental training effort if he can defend the crown. Last year was third up into the race but comes here off the back of 3 trials only with no serious race pressure. If you were confident he can find his best here fresh on a wet track then nothing here holds him out. Best in race by far but lots of question marks and should keep drifting.
EDUARDO: The move to Sydney really turned this horse around into a proper sprinting star who has gone toe to toe with Nature Strip a few times and turned him over twice. Wet track a huge tick here and hope Nash kicks up and makes NS sit outside him just to test him out properly again. Was slaughtered by Rachel King last year absolutely flying out front before rightfully dying in the straight but with conditions to suit this year he is a major contender.
GYTRASH: This would be a brilliant story with the little known trainer from Adelaide and the horse that's put him on the map getting the job done. Gordo been sleeping in a Caravan with his pet cockatiel at Randwick for the last few months getting Gytrash ready. This has been aim since a ripping run in the race last year. Had knee surgery since but very much back on track when I thought he could've went straight past Nature and Eduardo with luck last time out. Rain is a key, the knees feel a hard track loves the juice out and races best on fresh side. My only concern is how chopped up the inside ground will be as he is drawn the peg? Will do no work and if he can extract of fence around heels before the turn and get into better ground he will be winning.
TREKKING: Third time lining up in the race and both previous attempts has run out of his skin. If it was dry I would have him as a great each way chance at huge odds but think he spins the wheels a bit in the rain. Probably should've won the Moir when held up so in form but the rain scares me off.
MASKED CRUSADER: Futures Kings has a nice play for us here so best of luck to those with a live ticket. He's a very good horse and already this prep we've seen a couple of breathtaking wins from last to first however this is a different ball game here. Just going on history albeit this race hasn't been around long but it hasn't been one for backmarkers at all. Classique coming from just worse than midfield last year is best they've performed but bear in mind Eduardo went at a breakneck clip out in front setting it up. He will flop out back and be a long way off very good horses at the turn making it pretty difficult for him to win... wet shouldn't be an issue and if it does chop up maybe he will get to outside in best going but will need a proper rocketship to get past all of them.
WILD RULER: We nailed him in the Moir at juicy odds but can't jump off quick enough here!! Wet track his nemesis and not a great draw for him makes the map tricky. Up against it.
THE INFERNO: Bugger the rain! I reckon this guy would've really made his presence felt on a dry track off a hot speed. He is 1/1 on a Soft but no exposure to a proper wet like he comes across here so you are fully fuessing how he will go. He'll be back with Masked Crusader and if he handles wet will flash home but think the rain has cruelled chances significantly.
EMBRACER: The form around Masked Crusader ties in a little bit however he just isn't the same gravy as most of these. If he finishes top 8 the owners would be happy.
LOST AND RUNNING: Hard to know what to do here. Couldn't get snapped up any quicker for a slot in the Autumn when flying through the grades but the two lead in runs haven't been great. Last time on a heavy track he smacked a far inferior field so shouldn't be an issue and does map well here in behind the speed battle. Has been set for this so if he can peak here might be the upset result?
LIBERTINI: Couldn't touch her with stolen money off the interrupted preparation and wet track. Nothing has gone right and if I have concerns about Classique being able to win this fresh then she surely has none..
HOME AFFAIRS: Yes Yes Yes has done it before as a Waller 3yo and off the back of that fresh win you can't rule this fella out. Did it from start to finish fresh with Paulele behind him not given a sniff. Rating stacks up big time there and the only question is how does he map? Interesting to see whether they try hold out Eduaro and Nature drawn inside them or let them go. I think his best chance is to lead but will be tough and a speed battle will dent the chances. Still think if he takes a sit will be thereabouts and one I can't dismiss.
1- GYTRASH ($6.50)
2- EDUARDO ($6)
3- HOME AFFAIRS ($12)
4- NATURE STRIP ($3.60)
-LOST AND RUNNING ($34/$8)
*Odds accurate 6pm 15/10/21
Good luck team.