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G1 Sydney Cup

Randwick R7 - 3200m

Author - Early Bird

TOP 6 CHANCES & VALUE PLAYS:

*Odds correct as of 4pm Friday 16/4/21

THE CHOSEN ONE: ($16/$4.4) Huge in both Cups last year and also ran second in last years edition of this race. First two runs to start the prep very good before a plain showing in the Tancred but was caught wide. Horrible draw again but with a more economical run can be a major player bringing easily the best 3200m  formlines into the race. Juicy each way odds if Hugh can get a spot in running.

 

SOUTHERN FRANCE: ($7.50/$2.60) First time we get to see him back to 3200m since his first Aussie run in the 2019 Melb Cup. Dour stayer that is warming into the prep nicely but I think the big key to him is a bone dry track which he has struggled to find in Australia. Won the Zipping Classic in 2019 on a dry track then the Tancred last time out was the next time he has been on the dry which was easily his best run since that 2019 win. Will eat up 3200m and think we will see his best run on Australian soil here.

 

REALM OF FLOWERS: ($5.50/$2.15) Very stiff in the Manion when wide with no cover but still finding the line behind Favourite Moon. Think with a better run in transit she will overturn that result here and has proven herself over 3200m previous. Remarkably that second placing Manion Cup was the first time Damien Thornton has been beaten on this mare in 4 starts. He takes the ride again and clearly gets her going better than anyone. Think we can get a better price come race time and will be worth a little bet.

 

SHE'S IDEEL: ($7/$2.50) Monster run in the Tancred now drops 7kg at handicap conditions so have to respect again being rock hard fit deep in the prep. Will do no work in the run from a cushy draw and if she can tick off the 3200m box then a major player. Deserves a major win to cap off a very good prep where she hasn't finished out of the top 3.

 

MIAMI BOUND: ($10/$3) The one we want to win🙏🏼  (Futures & Platinum members have her at $51's sent months ago)

Hasn't won out of turn since the Oaks a few years back but flashing light run last start in Tancred when monstering the line out wide late. Rock hard fit now and the Melbourne Cup run on paper isn't too bad. Hard to back with any real confidence with her strike rate since the 3yo days but will be around mark here.

 

SELINO: ($18/$4.80) Won't find a more out and out stayer in the field and whilst he hasn't placed all prep I want to include him in case this turns into survival of the fittest. Would love them to be more positive on him here with 50kg on the back and no real turn of footy. The further they go the better he gets and looks a sneaky rough hope.

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G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2000m
R8 Randwick

COMMENTS:

Small field but one of the most highly anticipated races for a while with the 4th installment of Addeybb vs Verry Elleegant.

The wonderful Aussie mare is looking to square the ledger after turning the tables from last year in the Ranvet. Does look a two horse race but was great to see the Cox Plate winner return to form with a devastating Tancred win. (Albeit against much lesser opposition) but ticking the dry track query.

I think the Dragon can push the superstars and give them a fright here but do think one of the favs will get the chocolates.

Mugatoo has the slight claims as well but look for another slugfest down the straight with Marquand v McDonald throwing everything at their mounts.

I'm going to lean the International visitor to make it back to back QE stakes here. Verry Elleegant did have a fair fitness advantage in the Ranvet so Addeybb should be the one with lots of improvement here. Blinkers on first time as well mean its all go. Keen to sit back and watch this one without getting invested.

Bird  🦅

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