We are currently on winter break
Track: Good 4
PPA weather report: Raining a shit load of cash (hopefully)
Real Weather: 17 degrees and a small chance of showers
Its quite painful to be back at Caulfield after the recent leader bias we have been seeing here. In the past, Caulfield has been one of the more even tracks to bet on with every horse getting their chance. However, the last 3 meetings have had significant rail & leader bias. If you’re watching at home try to keep your eyes peeled for any patterns.
R1 Neds Same Race Multi Bm78 1400m
Plenty of speed on paper & a number of different form lines but I think the market has got this race spot on. Jumbo Ozaki has been racing well since joining the Danny O’Brien stable. He was on speed at Bendigo last start (was an advantage) but Damien Lane went down middle of the straight. The winner looks very smart in Big Night Out. Think he can bounce back today with the master Craig Williams jumping on board. I also think it’s worth a saver or bet to profit on Simply Optimistic. Ran home very well against the bias to close with the fastest last 200 of the race. From Barrier 5 can forward a more forward position & step up to 1400m should be no issues.
Betting Propositions: Jumbo Ozaki & Simply Optimistic are both at backable odds if you want to back & save one.
R2 3yo Fillies & Mares 1400m
Clarice Cliffs comes here for her 6th run this preparation after a narrow defeat at Bendigo last start. Where she gets to from the map is the query, but Jye is a good judge. Twitchy Frank backs up from the same Bendigo form race as Clarice Cliffs. Hard to see her turning the tables especially with a synthetic hoof filler for the first time. Pure Scott looks the knockout chance.
Betting Propositions: Couldn’t recommend a bet at the current price but Clarice Cliffs looks the one to beat.
R3 Vobis Gold Sprint, Open Set Weight & Penalties 3YO+ , 1200m.
Best Bet of the day lets go Pippie!!!
Betting Propositions: Backing Pippie
R4 Open Set Weights with Penalties 2000m
Track pattern will be playing a big role here. If you can remotely run on, Mr Quickie will be winning simple as that. The GOAT Damien Oliver jumps on board after a luckless G1 Doncaster Mile. Stepping up to 2000m suits. Brings most superior form to the race. If they can run on in the earlier races I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts $1.50.
Betting Propositions: Check pattern but if can run on then I would happily boost to $2 or start many multis with this as an anchor.
R5 Vobis Gold Mile, 1600m
Looks to be plenty of speed again in this race. I actually think this is the perfect set up for So Si Bon. Is a bit of a non winner however since been gelded has been very consistent. From Barrier 4 Mark Zahra should find a great spot just behind the speed. Drops from 2000m to 16000m & Blinkers are on. This is the big test. Iconoclasm is a big chance if he can find a spot with cover. Whilst he has been racing in much better races Kubrick looks out of form & one I’m happy to play around until proves me wrong. Mahamedis fly’s second up so expect a rapid improvement this start.
Betting Propositions: Backing both So Si Bon & Iconoclasm
R6 The Showdown 1200m
A genuine dart board race. If you like exotics, numbers or omens this is the race to play it. I was happy enough to bet around the current favourites. Archipeta Beach is coming off a bottomless Heavy10 win at Geelong on debut. River Night looks a 1000m horse. One I do like is a debutant from the Robbie Griffiths stable Halvoya. Trialled very good leading in. Happy to have a small play here on a low confidence race.
Betting Propositions: Was happy to take on the favourites. Very small play on Halvoya who looks to have ability in a very open race.
R7 – Neds Bel Esprit Stakes – 1100m
So many angles this race with many horses resuming. A lot of pace on paper but Caulfield Shute races generally suits those on pace. Eduardo is resuming off a trial which was hard to read. The 3rd in the Oakleigh Plate is good enough here but hasn’t shown anything near that since. Lyre is heading toward The Sangster in Adelaide but track pattern will be critical for her chances. Humma Humma will make own luck on pace. From Within is first up for Danny O’Brien stable & blinkers off for the first time. More than Exceed best of the roughies.
Betting Propositions: No Bet
R8 Vobis Dash 1100m
Sartorial Spendour will find the front. Gets the blinkers on for the first time. Is a horse who usually goes out far too fast and folds. Will be interesting to see if blinkers sharpen him up. Knowles was enormous last start wide and in the worst part of the track. Will need some luck but from Barrier 2 with Craig Williams booked I expect him to be more positive. Broadwayandfourth is a very smart horse for the Mitchell Freedman stable but from the barrier I expect the shute races to suit those on pace. Hard to have given the map
Betting Propositions: Watch track pattern. Knowles ready to peak 3rd up but Sartorial Splendour may be suited.
R9 Vobis Sires Guineas 1600m
Affair To Remember is looks very talented. She beat Sierra Sue last start who subsequently won at Sale. Damien Oliver jumps on so expect him to know the past part of the track by that stage. She looks class but Moonlight Maid draws inside which I don’t think will suit. She is on a SA Oaks pathway so not expecting her to peak until then. Ocular looks a progressive horse and was narrowly defeated at Sandown last start. Draws a good barrier today so can sit closer to the speed. Score is the other key chance of the market but map looks sticky. For that reason pending track bias I’m happy to be on both Affair to Remember & Ocular.
Betting Propositions: Affair to Remember (provided you can run on) & Ocular.
Hopefully we have provided enough of a brief insight to grab a winner or two. (Or 9)
Futures King 🙏🏼