g1 previews
The Championships Day 1 Preview/Official Selections
Author: Early Bird
Grab a coffee and get pumped for the day ahead with a full preview and official selections for the 4 Groups 1s at Royal Randwick for Day 1 of the Championships - Enjoy!
Inglis Sires - 1400m
Race: Randwick R6
**No Official Selections***
Boxing up Trifecta & F4 from below.
TOP 5 HOPES:
CYLINDER: Has the proper lead in form for this race and just has to run to last start to win here. Don't think the 1400m should trouble him as he was strong over 1200m but just nailed by a pretty exciting horse late. Nothing from the Slipper turns tables on him..
CAFE MILLENIUM: Looks very juicy odds here and bit of a wildcard factor about him after not being seen in the Slipper. Debut win superb then down track behind Cylinder but wasn't run to suit at all. Comes here fresh and can run a bold race as I think he is talented.
BUTCH CASSIDY: Keeping him safe after blackbooking off debut run when should have bolted in at Flemington. Got the easy kill at Mornington midweek after that then thrown in deep end here. Gai polish third up and probably leads them up. Can hang around in the straight.
VEIGHT: How good is he?? Smacked them twice down in Victoria, first in weaker class but then went to Flem and made a mess of them over this trip. Like the 1400m run under the belt and hard to say he won't go to another level again here. Gate only issue will need luck.
DON CORLEONE: The other from the Slipper that can land in the exotic numbers. He was pretty good from well back in the run. Don't think he wins here but need for the places.
TJ Smith - 1200m
Race: Randwick R7
Official Selections:
R7 #10 Giga Kick ($4.50/BSP)🚨🚨
R7 #3 Private Eye ($7.50/BSP)🚨
Preview Exotic Plays (Not Official Selections):
Tri: 2,3,10,13/2,3,10,11,13/2,3,4,6,11,13
Boxed First Four: 2,3,4,6,10,11,13,15
KEY RUNNERS:
NATURE STRIP: Can't have him. He can bob up and leave you with egg on his face but gee it was pour last time and surely ready for the retirement paddock?? Tick over jumpout looked slick and may get a touch of sting out of ground but is his best behind him. Taking him on again.
LOST AND RUNNING: Keen to see this one back at the races after being scratched from the Everest last year when i had pegged as a moral. Trialled super but going to need some Bowman magic from the gate. Opened big overs..
PRIVATE EYE: Love this fella back to WFA and with the run under belt its hard to see him not being in the finish. His Newmarket run was superb and his Everest run here last year even better. Drawn for cushion run behind a hot tempo then can explode late. Big winning chance.
MAZU: Must be included in exotics once you go back and watch last years Everest. Newmarket run fresh solid also.
I WISH I WIN: Racing pattern in sprints making him a tough betting conveyance. Both runs been huge but never a winning hope. Have to risk again in big field.
GIGA KICK: We identified him in the Everest last year and why would you jump off after the flashing light run first up in the Challenge. His finishing turn of foot is something to behold and may just blow them away late and take over Natures title as Worlds Best Sprinter.
LOFTY STRIKE: Deserves a big win after his second placing in last few G1 runs when flashing home late. Froggy knows the horse well and will get the perfect set up to fly home again but the question is can he finish as strong as Private Eye/Giga Kick?? One for exotics can only run well but risk for the win.
PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE: Big fan of this mare and only time he's lost is when we banged 4 units on him on a terrible Caulfield surface. Stalked Eduardo and sailed past last time out, setup here looks similar sitting behind the speed battle with only question mark being can she hold out a few of the fast finishers over 1200m.
IN SECRET: Will risk a bit here back to WFA from the handicap conditions where she got a peach ride from the substitute Jockey and gave them a beating. Down the straight looks to be where she does her best work so back around a bend now and speed map will mean she might need luck buried away. Looks too skinny.
Doncaster Handicap - 1600m
Race: Randwick R8
Absolute cracking race and not many in the field I could talk you out of backing. Luck may well play a part with a capacity field lining up but playing some small value bets in what looks a tough one to predict.
Official Selections:
R8 #2 Osipenko ($13/BSP)🚨.25u
#17 Protagonist (BSP) 0.75u
EXOTIC NUMBERS:
Will box the horses below up for trifectas/F4s but with no major confidence at all so will only be very small interest bets. Left a few key chances out Alligator and Zougotcha who both have a few negatives IMO.
MR BRIGHTSIDE: Rarely do they defend their crown in this race but last years winner returns off the back of the ASM win when giving a great ride. Purton on board, rock hard fit and drawn to do no work. Will get every chance.
FANGIRL: Runner up to Anamoe a few times this prep and if the Magic Man can give her a nice steer its hard to see her not being in the finish. Gate a bit stick so will need Morieras best work.
CONVERGE: Very keen early in week on this horse third up here down in weights off a ripping run but a little setback a few days out puts me off.. Will kick myself if he wins as the Anamoe form looks nice for this.
BANDERSNATCH: Backs up after 7 days off the dominant prelude win and drops in weight. Should improve off that run and does look juicy each way play from the plum gate. Can definitely entertain.
HOPE IN YOUR HEART: Has the barrier draw killed her chances?? Both runs this prep enormous but been doing no favours with the gate. Where does she get to in the run is the big question. If she somehow gets a cart across and settles midfield with cover can win here at a monster BSP.
PROTAGONIST: Absolutely love them dropping back from 2000m for this hard run mile event and also drops 5kg off the win that Zeyrek has since franked. Drawn middle alley to get a suck run and if out in time will be very strong late when others falter. Pretty keen on his chances and Haggas has them peaking at Champs time.
OSIPENKO: This has been the Grand Final and the only negative is the missed run this preparation otherwise it could be a chips in job. Had to rely on a scratching to get in but get the feeling he is the number 1 seed from Waller camp so was always finding a way into final field. Barrier 1 a little sticky but Dee riding very well and if he can extracate off fence at right time with no weight at all on the back he will be extremely tough to hold out. Beaten by a few here in the George Ryder but he did a lot of work that will bring him on nicely for this peak run and gets the weight relief. Keen.
ATC Australian Derby - 2400m
Race: Randwick R9
A little torn here was half keen to play a few at value mainly Mark Twain, Manzoice and Virtuous Circle but looks a risk taking on Sharp'N'Smart who does look tough to beat. Chances don't stop there but have to risk Pericles at the price. Think the first few over line should come from below so will bet up on the trifecta.
HORSES FOR EXOTICS:
SHARP 'N' SMART: Looks the horse to beat off an easy NZ derby win and has already won multiple G1s so clearly a very talented 3yo. Barrier shouldn't be an issue with what looks a race with little speed on paper should be able to go forward and slot in. Goodluck to those with the big futures tickets.
MANZOICE: Way over the odds for mine but maybe just lacking a run after missing a race this prep. No issues on staying the journey after winning the derby last year over 2500m when going past the favourite here. First up very good then flat second up which can happen. Maybe a run short as I said but if they go hard he will be tough late. Blinkers on for the peak run..
ELLIPTICAL: Blinkers back on and think he will run a beauty here in a race they've set him for. Guineas race shape didn't really work out for him but should be able to work home nicely here. Question marks on staying ability but think he will go well.
MARK TWAIN: Huge in the NZ Derby from the back when really was never a winning hope. No doubt off that finale he definitely be strong again at the 2400m and should pass plenty of tired horses in the straight. How far back does he get again is the negative and favourite did safely hold him out and was turned off late.
VIRTUOUS CIRCLE: The X-factor here for mine. Could be way off the mark but both runs this prep no luck at all and virtually untested so not sure the grounding for this race but does look a dour big stayer and a wide draw may well suit. Should get cover and find the outside with plenty of time to wind up.. Keen to see how he goes here.
MAJORBEEL: One that could just keep finding late and add some value to exotics. On quick back up and not sure the best form race here where the Kiwi Derby looks the better lead up but I do like how this horse continues to fight when you think he's had enough. Clark on a front runner that might get his own way and does look pretty dour like he will just keep going.