G1 Turnbull Stakes 2000m
Author: Futures King

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Race Review: I feel like a broken record, however here’s another Group 1 where they have walked and sprinted home. They went 7.5 half lengths below average to the 1200m. This meant those on speed were advantaged and made it nearly impossible for anything back in the field to win. The eventual winner, Smokin Romans had a beautiful run up on pace and was aided by a superb ride from Ethan Brown. Due to the pedestrian tempo, there were a significant number of horses who were out the back of the field, who looked average to the eye, but there have been some big last 200/400m of this race and some horses we can follow moving forward. Interestingly, this race has rated the 2nd worst race of the entire day. Not sure I can ever recall seeing the feature race rate so poorly. Makes it extremely tricky to assess this race moving forward.

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Horses to follow: 

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Smokin’ Romans: Gee you’d love to own a horse that can bang himself up on speed, give a kick and be there at the finish. Smokin’ Romans is now favourite for the Caulfield Cup and it’s easy to see why. Will get in with a lightweight, will race up on pace and looks almighty tough to get past. It should be noted, that both his last 2 victories he has been heavily advantaged by the slow tempos, where he has had field position and weight on his opponents. It will be interesting to see how he handles the 2400m pressure of the Caulfield Cup. I do not think there’s any value at all in his current price. 

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Inspirational Girl/Great House/Young Werther/Surefire: Just going to group all of these together otherwise I’d be writing the same comment for each. All managed to run some seriously nice last 4 and 200m splits in a race where it was impossible for them to win given their settling position and the tempo of the race.

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Jury’s Out:

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Profondo: Rinse, repeat. 

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Duais: Thought she was given an absolute peach yesterday and she failed to deliver. She was closer than a lot of other horses who flew home, yet still didn’t let down. Coming off the back of pulling up lame, it would take a big training performance to turn her around in 2 weeks time to win a Caulfield Cup. 

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Gold Trip: Keeps going around as favourite, and keeps failing to deliver. Granted, he was 3 wide the trip yesterday, but let’s remember he’s only won 1 from 13 races. That’s the facts. Surely doesn’t start under $5 in a race again. 

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Epsom Handicap 1600m
Author: Futures King

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Race Review: Certainly not a vintage Epsom, however the deadheat result certainly added a bit of theatre to an otherwise lackluster field. By this time of the day, all the jockeys were angling of the fence and coming down the middle of the track. They went out quickly here, 7L above avg to the 600m mark, with Cross Talk and Nimalee going head to head out in front. The eventual winner(s) Ellsberg and Top Ranked both had lovely runs midfield, conserving energy, which allowed them to sprint over the top late. The race has rated reasonably overall, however the majority of these will have to convert this form to dry ground moving forward.

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Horses to follow: 

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Top Ranked: Backed up his big first up win with another big performance on Saturday. I must admit, when he loomed up at the 200m mark, I thought he was going to fly straight past them and put a gap between them. Will be interesting where they go next, I am hearing Cox Plate as a potential target which would certainly add some interest to the race. 

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Ellsberg: Ran out of his skin here. Definitely suited by sitting in behind the hot speed and got his conditions to suit with the rain. Unsure where they go next, but if its a wet track, you certainly can’t discount him. 

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Hinged: Gee she was brave. Sat in behind the hot speed and only went down narrowly the last 50 metres of the race. They have absolutely gapped 4th (5 lengths) indicating how much they had on the rest of the field. Would’ve loved them to go Caulfield Cup with her, however hard to see Waller going 1600m to 2400m in one run. Suspect Cox Plate/Golden Eagle might be on the radar.

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Jury’s Out: 

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Fangirl: Not one to question Waller, but can we please get her down to Melbourne on a good surface. Sacking her completely on anything worse than a Soft 6

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Icebath: Lack’s that killer blow late in her races. Had the run, the tempo and the track conditions on Saturday and still couldn’t get near them. No from me.